Security
“Suffer Twice If You Pull Tinubu Down”: IPCR Boss Links Peace to Economic Plans
Nigeria’s path to lasting peace hinges on decentralizing power, formalizing the informal sector, and reviving local governance, even as citizens grapple with the strain of economic reforms, the Director General of the Institute for Peace and Conflict Resolution, Dr. Joseph Ochogwu, has said.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with _The Workplace Magazine_ on Monday in Abuja, Ochogwu said IPCR — the Federal Government’s main peace and conflict advisory body under the Ministry of Foreign Affairs — operates with “independence in thought” and delivers solution-driven, evidence-based research to shape policy.
“We are independent in thought. Government does not in any way influence our research,” he said. “We do research and provide policy advisory for the Nigerian government.”
Ochogwu identified “over centralization and over concentration of power and authority” as a major driver of Nigeria’s crises. He praised the Tinubu administration’s drive to “diffuse power from the center to the states and to local government.”
“Conflict is local. So also peace is local,” he said. “Every conflict you see happens among people within the local community. If you must build peace, the peace-building element also must be local.”
He said local governments — the “frontline agency for conflict prevention and conflict management” — suffered “complete deficits” from 1999 until President Tinubu took office. With more than 8,000 wards meant to produce councilors for agriculture, health, and education, he noted the grassroots structure was “cut off,” allowing problems to escalate to states and the Federal Government.
Ochogwu commended the President for seeking local government autonomy at the Supreme Court and cited the decentralization of electricity generation and distribution as another critical reform. IPCR, he added, is advocating for decentralized policing, stressing that state governments remain “titular chief security officers” without power to appoint police commissioners.
Tying IPCR’s work to the ‘Renewed Hope’ agenda, Ochogwu said the administration’s focus has been on “reducing, reengineering, reforming and repositioning our economy” because “if the economy is the base upon which all other structures stand, and you don’t get it right, everything falls down.”
He described fuel subsidy removal as a necessary sacrifice. “It’s something everybody consumed daily — factories, individuals. So it’s a sacrifice everybody is doing. The point now is: to what extent do Nigerians understand they need to make this sacrifice to build the nation we all desire?”
He warned against moves to destabilize the government. “Those not currently in power will do anything to pull the government down. As we endure these pains, we get the gains subsequently. If we pull this administration down, we’re going to suffer twice.”
*Security Threats Require Mixed Approaches*
On Nigeria’s diverse security challenges — Boko Haram/ISWAP in the North-East, banditry in the North-West, farmer-herder clashes in the Middle Belt, and separatist agitation in the South-East — Ochogwu said there is “no single military doctrine for everybody.”
“A lot of the internal security threats you see are actually police functions. The military’s supposed to be focused on defense,” he said. He noted that operations like Hadin Kai and Delta Safe are “ad hoc military interventions” under the constitutional provision for military aid to civil authority.
He said kidnapping for ransom is driven by money and linked to Sahelian instability. “You kidnap an average villager, people can rally around and pay $5,000 or $10,000. That’s good money for these groups.” With foreign forces aligning with local challenges, he said both kinetic and non-kinetic responses are needed.
Ochogwu dismissed claims of government inaction. “There is a false assumption that people in government don’t work. I have been to the front line several times. There are men and women having sleepless nights, moving with their lives on the line.”
On deradicalisation, he said a “very rigorous profiling system” involving the military, Ministry of Justice, Humanitarian Affairs, and Correctional Service assesses levels of involvement. “A child forced into Boko Haram, acting as a courier, should he be prosecuted like commanders who go out to kill?” He disclosed that “about 96,000 people surrendered voluntarily from the camp of Boko Haram to the government” at one point.
IPCR is pushing to clarify citizenship rights versus indigenous rights, which he called “a very contentious thing that leads to violence.” He questioned why a resident of 10 years who pays tax cannot contest or vote in that community.
He flagged Nigeria’s informal recycling economy — “scavengers,” or “baban bola” — as a security risk. “They render livelihood and economic services, but also pose a critical danger to national infrastructure assets,” he said, citing theft of copper wires and rail tracks. IPCR research shows most lack NIN or national identity. “We need to formalize them, get their bio-data, put them in clusters.”
Technology, he added, is vital for future security gains, pointing to recent operations where “five to seven terrorists” were neutralized using tech, and citing integration with NIMC’s identity system. “We’re coming from an analogue group. Now we’re building capacity for contemporary management of crisis.”
IPCR collaborates with the military, intelligence services, police, MDAs, states, local authorities, traditional and religious leaders, and youth groups. Internationally, it partners with UN agencies, INGOs, and bilateral partners including the UK Foreign Office.
Ochogwu said the Institute’s advisories range from open-source briefs to classified reports for agencies. It runs a national conflict early warning system and convenes strategic meetings, including a recent multi-dimensional security program.
“The work we do is low-key,” he said. “If you don’t know it, you don’t know it. It’s not for play.”
A veteran of 22 of IPCR’s 25 years, including six years in the Villa and a stint as Conflict Adviser to the UK’s DFID, Ochogwu called IPCR “one of the most creative and innovative establishments of the Nigerian government.”
“For me, the path forward is clear,” he said. “Decentralize power, formalize the informal, define citizenship, blend kinetic and non-kinetic approaches, and above all, renew hope. If we trust the reforms to take their course, we all benefit eventually. But if we pull the system down midway, we suffer twice.”

